2004 Toll Fellow Trey Grayson shared the following thoughts as he looks ahead to next week's elections. Grayson is currently serving as Kentucky's secretary of state.
Kentucky traditionally receives the nation’s attention early on election night because, along with Indiana, our polls are the first to close across the nation. In many ways, we are seen as the national bellwether. The eventual President has won Kentucky 11 out of the past 12 presidential election cycles. In 1994, Kentucky started the sweep for Republicans with the special election of Congressman Ron Lewis in KY-2. In 2010, the eyes of the country will also turn to Kentucky to get an early sense of whether there might be a similar sweep, thanks, in part, to the enthusiasm of the Tea Party.
Most attention of the country will be placed upon Kentucky’s hotly contested senate race which, in most political rankings, has been rated a toss-up. Rand Paul, a national representative of the Tea Party movement, is taking on Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway to replace retiring republican Senator Jim Bunning. If Conway were to pull off a win in a race that was originally considered a lock for Republicans, it may be a harbinger of an encouraging night for democrats. Political junkies will also be watching KY-3 and KY-6 to determine the strength of the republican wave. In KY-6, republican challenger Andy Barr is taking on democratic incumbent Ben Chandler in what has become an extremely tight race. If challenger Todd Lally knocks off democratic incumbent John Yarmuth in KY-3, then, democrats will be in for a very long night.
At the state level, neither chamber is expected to switch party control. The state senate may be most in flux, with tight races in Lexington and Bowling Green involving an incumbent from each party. In addition, an open seat in Central Kentucky is getting a lot of attention for both parties. Perhaps the most interesting race is for one of Kentucky’s western most senate districts, KY Senate-2. There, independent Bob Leeper, who serves as the senate appropriations chair, has a strong challenge from former lawmaker Rex Smith, as well as a little known republican. Leeper caucuses with republicans and has most of their support, but with an actual republican in the race, this will be one to watch.
The state house is in no danger of flipping party control, but Republicans are expected to make gains and perhaps significant ones. If republicans can pick up six seats, they will have a stronger voice in decisions, as democrats will have to pick off republicans for items that require a super-majority (including constitutional amendments and some appropriations and revenue measures). Republicans have a near record amount of challengers while democrats have few challengers but large campaign coffers. One interesting race which could have a strong effect on house leadership is a race involving democratic incumbent House Speaker Pro-tem, Larry Clark. Labor unions, typically a strong ally of Clark’s, are reportedly infusing large amounts of cash into the race to defeat Clark, who is an extremely strong leader in the democratic caucus.
Finally, close mayoral contests in Kentucky’s two largest cities, Louisville and Lexington, bear watching. In Louisville, voters will be selecting a new mayor to replace “Mayor for Life” Jerry Abramson, who has served as mayor for 20 out of the last 24 years. In Lexington, the incumbent mayor faces the current vice-mayor in what has become the most expensive race in Lexington history. Races such as these are important to other races around the Commonwealth as Kentucky’s voter turnout is typically driven by local candidates and not federal candidates, eschewing what is the norm nationally. Senate and congressional candidates will not only have a close eye on their own races, but on these important local races, as they could dramatically affect who turns out to vote in their own elections.
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